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August 2014
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Is the Fed really tapering? And why the $ probably will get weaker!

Is the Fed trying to install misplaced confidence in the economy by saying it is tapering whilst it is really NOT tapering!

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Fed, although they say they are tapering, is not really tapering hence why the 10 y treasury yield is at around 2.65% the whole time despite the so called improvements in the economy. New jobs for April were 288,000 though the participation rate fell to 62.8% a 35 year low. The job figures included 234K of “birth/death adjustment” jobs and the main question here is who is fooling whom? The so-called birth-death model factors in jobs assumed to have been created by employers who are too new to have been included in the survey, and subtracts jobs from employers assumed to have failed and therefore not responded to the latest survey. Can you imagine what nonsense and what a tool for manipulation! You have to ask yourself why not just follow the real figures. Past “birth/death adjustment” jobs have shown how off these figures have been from reality. Who needs this nonsense and who benefits from this erratic and manipulated figure that is the question?

The number of people not in the labor force soared to 92 million, the second highest monthly increase ever and who will pay for them? The labor force tumbled by 800K to 155.4 million from 156.2 million as the delayed effect of the extended jobless benefits ending finally hits. As a result the BLS reported that the U.S. unemployment rate fell from 6.7% to 6.3% in April, the lowest level since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, and the largest one-month drop in the jobless rate in three years. We have a new bull market!

Is the Fed trying to install misplaced confidence in the economy May 7, 2014